Just a few months ago, the commercial interiors world was buzzing with optimism. Brands were planning ambitious growth, sales leaders were setting bold targets, and "thrive in 2025" was the rallying cry in boardrooms across the industry.

In fact, according to our Open-Line Landscape Survey that over 30 open-line brands took in Q4 of 2024, 90% of brands were expecting growth in 2025.

And then... everything changed.

In what feels like the blink of an eye, we've watched the conversation shift from expansion to preservation, from acceleration to recalibration. The economic outlook of Q1 has forced a dramatic rethinking of what success looks like this year.

The Perfect Storm

It's not just one factor causing this reset. We're seeing a convergence of challenges:

• Tariff uncertainties creating pricing and supply chain anxiety

• GSA rollbacks impacting government-focused manufacturers

• Broader economic forecasts cooling faster than anticipated

For many open-line brands, this means the growth projections made in Q4 2024 now look like wishful thinking. Those ambitious targets? They might need significant adjustment to reflect our new reality.

Recalibration, Not Surrender

But here's the thing – this isn't about giving up on growth. It's about being clear-eyed about the landscape we're actually operating in.

The brands that will navigate this shift most successfully won't be the ones that cling to outdated projections. They'll be the ones that quickly recalibrate, communicate transparently with their teams and partners, and find the pockets of opportunity that always exist – even in challenging markets.

The Opportunity in Disruption

In fact, this disruption might create unexpected advantages for nimble manufacturers:

1. Relationship deepening: When budgets tighten, specifiers and dealers become even more selective about their manufacturer partnerships. This is the perfect time to strengthen relationships by demonstrating your value beyond just products.

2. Competitive differentiation: In growth markets, a rising tide lifts all boats. In challenging ones, true differentiation becomes more visible and valuable.

3. Innovation catalyst: Necessity truly is the mother of invention. Some of the most innovative approaches emerge when the "business as usual" playbook no longer works.

What's Next?

So where do we go from here? The brands that will emerge strongest will:

• Quickly reconcile their end-of-2024 projections with current realities

• Communicate transparently with their teams and partners about adjustments

• Create scenario-based plans that allow for both challenges and opportunities

• Focus energy on the vertical markets showing resilience

The shift from "thrive in 2025" to "survive in 2025" doesn't have to be a downgrade in ambition – it can be an upgrade in strategic clarity.

What adjustments are you making to your 2025 forecast? We'd love to hear how you're navigating these shifts.

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