If you've been watching our industry lately, you've probably noticed something big happening—a wave of consolidation that's reshaping how we do business. Picture this: what used to be a landscape dotted with local dealers is transforming into one where regional powerhouses are expanding their reach across multiple states and markets. At GreySpace, we're seeing dealers evolve from local specialists into sophisticated multi-territory operations that are changing the game in terms of service offerings, market coverage, and customer relationships. What does this mean for you? Whether you're a manufacturer, dealer, or industry partner, these shifts are creating both exciting opportunities and new challenges that demand fresh thinking. Let's dive into five key trends that are defining this transformation, and explore how they might reshape your strategic planning for the years ahead.

1. Dealer Sprawl Intensifies, Then Cools

Here's a number that might surprise you: by 2030, our research at GreySpace suggests that 40-50% of industry revenue will flow through just 20 mega-dealers. It's a dramatic shift that's reshaping our industry landscape. These aren't just bigger dealers—they're evolving into comprehensive service providers with impressive geographic reach and increasingly diverse offerings.

Think of it like this: dealers backed by strong financial partners are becoming regional powerhouses, affecting everyone from manufacturers to end users. But here's the interesting part—while this expansion wave is powerful, we're expecting it to moderate in the next 1-2 years. Why? Because manufacturers and financial backers want to see more than just growth—they're looking for proof that these expanded territories can deliver solid profitability and enhanced performance.

2. Open-Line Manufacturer Alignments

Our Expanding Dealer research is revealing an intriguing trend: strategic partnerships between expanding dealers and open-line manufacturers. While we're not necessarily talking about acquisitions (though those are happening too), we're seeing something equally powerful—strategic alignments that create win-win scenarios for both parties.

Independent reps have long excelled at connecting complementary product lines, but now we're seeing a new dynamic. Progressive dealers are streamlining their partnerships, focusing on fewer but deeper relationships with open-line manufacturers. What's particularly interesting is how major manufacturers are informally blessing these arrangements, creating a new kind of ecosystem that benefits everyone involved.

3. The Leap Froggers

Let’s call a spade a spade. Our industry products are highly commoditized – I know - what a hot take! But here's where things get interesting—we're seeing smaller manufacturers make strategic moves that let them jump ahead of larger competitors. How? By becoming specialists rather than generalists.

These companies are finding success by focusing deeply on specific sectors like healthcare, education, or customization—areas where major manufacturers sometimes struggle to deliver specialized solutions. If you're a niche player with outstanding products and processes, you're in a unique position to capitalize on this trend. The key is having a focused 3-5 year plan that aligns with where our industry is heading.

4. Hitch Your Wagon Or Hedge Your Bets

Here's one of our favorite topics at GreySpace: approximately two dozen progressive dealerships are expanding their footprints and service offerings, both domestically and internationally. These dealers aren't just growing—they're forming strategic partnerships with manufacturers who support their vision.

This creates an interesting challenge. Traditionally, manufacturers have relied on independent reps covering specific territories, with clear boundaries and processes. But as dealers expand beyond these traditional lines, we're seeing increasing complexity in everything from project registrations to commission tracking and post-installation support. The industry faces a crucial question: will manufacturers pivot toward a more dealer-focused strategy, or maintain their broad market approach?

5. Aggregators

As our industry evolves, we're seeing innovative solutions emerge to help manufacturers navigate this changing landscape. During consolidation periods, while some companies get bigger through mergers and acquisitions, others are finding success through new go-to-market strategies. Enter the aggregators—platforms that bring multiple independent brands together under one unified customer experience.

At GreySpace, we are aware of a few interesting strategies that are being developed to give manufacturers new options for gaining market exposure and growth. Existing examples of aggregators include Design Public, Indeal, and several others – look for more of these players to come into the industry. It's not just about being bigger—it's about being smarter in how we connect manufacturers with their markets.

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As we look ahead, these five trends paint a picture of an industry in transformation—one that's becoming more sophisticated, more connected, and ultimately more capable of serving end users in new ways. The consolidation wave we're experiencing isn't just about bigger players absorbing smaller ones; it's about creating smarter, more efficient ways to bring solutions to market. Whether you're a manufacturer weighing your distribution strategy, a dealer plotting your growth trajectory, or a niche player ready to make your unique mark, now's the time to think strategically about where you fit in this evolving landscape. The most successful players in our industry's next chapter won't just be the biggest—they'll be the ones who best understand how to navigate these changes while staying true to their core strengths. Keep watching this space—we'll be sharing more insights as these trends continue to unfold.